OSCAR PREDICTIONS REVIEW

Best Picture:
Lost in Translation -- Should win.
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -- Will win.

Actor:
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation -- Should win and will win.

Actress:
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams -- Should win.
Charlize Theron, Monster -- Will win.

Supporting Actor:
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai -- Should win.
Tim Robbins, Mystic River -- Will win.

Supporting Actress:
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog -- Should win and will win.

Director:
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation -- Should win.
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -- Will win.

Adapted Screenplay:
Brian Helgeland, Mystic River -- Should win and will win.

Original Screenplay:
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation -- Should win and will win.

Animated feature film:
Finding Nemo -- Should win and will win.

Miracle ***1/2

Cast: Kurt Russell, Eddie Cahill, Michael Mantenuto, Patrick O'Brien Demsey, Nathan West, Noah Emmerich, Patricia Clarkson
Director: Gavin O'Connor

Miracle is a straightforward account of the 1980 US Olympic hockey team, and how they came to be. The story is told, for the most part, from the perspective of head coach Herb Brooks (Russell) as chooses the team and then shapes them into the champions that they will become. He has many unorthodox ways that rub his players, assistant coaches, and Olympic committee members the wrong way. But, Brooks has a plan. He knows exactly what needs to be done to bring home the gold. He also has a personal stake in the matter: he was cut from the Olympic team just before they won the gold medal in the 1960 Olympics.

The hockey games are well choreographed and are able to generate a level of tension despite the fact that the outcome is known to all. Russell gives a fine performance as a coach who has just one goal: to win. This is a good family that is inspiring and will leave you with a warm feeling inside after it is over.

OSCAR PREDICTION:Best Picture:
Lost in Translation -- Should win. Excellent all around.
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -- Will win. LOTR mania will reign supreme at the Oscars this year and ROTK will be rewarded for the entire trilogy even though it is not the best movie of 2003.
Seabiscuit -- Surprise nomination with no real chance of winning.

OSCAR PREDICTION: Actor:
Bill Murray, Lost in Translation -- Should win and will win. Bill Murray has given the performance of his career with his funny and touching portrayal of a man that seems to be disconnected from everything around him until he makes that one special connection.
Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog -- Great, moving performance, but will probably be ignored because he has won before.
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl -- Could win. Surprise nomination for is humorous portrayal of a pirate in one of the year's biggest surprise hits.
Sean Penn, Mystic River -- Good job, but he was much better in 21 Grams.
Jude Law, Cold Mountain -- No chance. Cold Mountain did not live up to expectations, and he has already said that he should not win.

OSCAR PREDICTION: Actress:
Naomi Watts, 21 Grams -- Should win. Powerful performance as a happily married mother who has everything torn away from her.
Charlize Theron, Monster -- Will win. She uglied herself up to get into the mind of a serial killer. A good performance, but not the best.
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider -- A pleasant surprise of a nomination, but she probably has little to no chance.
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give -- I don't really know why she was nominated.
Samantha Morton, In America -- DID NOT SEE

50 First Dates ***

Cast: Adam Sandler, Drew Barrymore, Sean Astin, Rob Schneider, Blake Clark
Director: Peter Segal

Veterinarian Henry Roth (Sandler) is a player. He has made a habit of seducing tourists coming to Hawaii, where he lives. That is, until he meets Lucy (Barrymore). After spending a day together, they agree to meet again the next day for breakfast. One problem: when the next day comes, she doesn't remember him! It seems that she was in a car accident that caused her to be unable to retain short term memory. She remembers everything up to the accident, but forgets everything from the previous day. But a funny thing has happened: Henry is genuinely interested in Lucy. He begins to show up for breakfast every day, hoping she will eventually remember him. Sandler and Barrymore have great chemistry together, even better than in their previous effort together, "The Wedding Singer". Sandler's Henry is sweet in his pursuit of the forgetful Lucy. There are some plot holes that can be forgiven for a movie of the type, and the end doesn't cheat the audience with an easy solution. And, of course, this is a good date movie for the Valentine's season.

OSCAR PREDICTION: Supporting Actor:
Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai -- Should win. Excellect performance as one of the last of the great samurai. Quiet but powerful and thought prevoking.
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler -- Could win. Also playing one of the last of his kind ("old school" casino owners in Las Vegas), he has begun a bit of a resurgence in his career with this role.
Tim Robbins, Mystic River -- Will win. Playing a tormented soul with secrets in his past and present will give him the edge in this category.
Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams -- He is worthy of the nod, playing a born again ex-convict, but will not win.
Djimon Hounsou, In America -- DID NOT SEE

OSCAR PREDICTION: Supporting Actress:
Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog -- Should win and will win. Great subtle performance of the wife behind a proud Iranian immigrant.
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River -- Great performance of a wife who is torn between supporting her husband and doing what she thinks is right.
Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain -- Comic relief in a serious Civil War movie. A bit over the top at times.
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April -- DID NOT SEE
Holly Hunter, thirteen -- DID NOT SEE

OSCAR PREDICTION: Director: Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation -- Should win. She has really proven herself in her sophmore effort, evoking a strong disconnected feeling for the main characters and pulling great performances out of Bill Murray and Scarlett Johansson.
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River -- He does an excellent job of unfolding the well crafted story to provide the greatest effect.
Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -- Will win. LOTR mania will be strong at the Oscars.
Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World -- He does a great job of bringing about the time and what life was like on the sea.
Fernando Meirelles, City of God -- DID NOT SEE

OSCAR PREDICTION: Adapted Screenplay:
Brian Helgeland, Mystic River -- Should win and will win. Well written story that reveals key points slowly and satisfyingly.
Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -- This movie will probably win in the bigger categories.
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit -- Very little chance of winning.
Robert Pulcini & Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor -- DID NOT SEE -- Has some good buzz and could be a surprise winner.
Braulio Mantovani, City of God -- DID NOT SEE

OSCAR PREDICTION: Original Screenplay:
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation -- Should win and will win. Great original story written especially for Bill Murray. She even said that she would not have made the movie without him.
Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson and David Reynolds, Finding Nemo -- Another great story, but this will fall by the wayside because it is a cartoon.
Denys Arcand, The Barbarian Invasions -- DID NOT SEE
Steven Knight, Dirty Pretty Things -- DID NOT SEE
Jim Sheridan & Naomi Sheridan & Kirsten Sheridan, In America -- DID NOT SEE

OSCAR PREDICTION: Animated feature film:
Finding Nemo -- Should win and will win. Finding Nemo could easily have been nominated for best picture and be a contender.
Brother Bear -- Not the best or the worst that Disney has produced, this one has almost no chance.
The Triplets of Belleville -- DID NOT SEE

COMING SOON:
I will be making my picks for the major categories of the Academy Awayds. Stay tuned...

Monster ***

Cast: Charlize Theron, Christina Ricci, Bruce Dern
Director: Patty Jenkins

Monster is the story of real-life serial killer Aileen Wuornos that starts up right before her first killing. Wuornos was a prostitute planning on committing suicide, but a stop at a bar for a drink would change her mind. At the bar she met Selby, a shy lesbian looking for a friend. The two hit it off and become a couple of sorts. It is an unhealthy relationship with each feeding off of the other. Wuornos provides the money by prostitution until one night she is raped and ends up killing the guy. This is the only "justifyable" murder, but leads to many more as this becomes easier for Wuornos to do than offer sex. Selby is encouraging of this in a round about way, and is to some degree just as guilty. But the killing of the wrong person at the wrong time eventually sends their house of cards crashing. Charlize Theron pulls out all stops in this role, and succeeds greatly. My only objection to this movie is the way it encourages the viewer to sympathize with Wuornos and maybe even feel sorry for her. I suppose that that is a side effect of getting the story from her point of view, but it is bothersome nonetheless.

Girl With a Pearl Earring ***

Cast: Scarlett Johansson, Colin Firth, Tom Wilkinson, Judy Parfitt, Cillian Murphy, Essie Davis
Director: Peter Webber

Girl with a Pearl Earring is a fictionalized account of what lead the artist Vermeer to paint the painting of the same name. The real events around the painting are unknown, so the movie is all conjecture. That being said, it is a plausible story. Griet, as a teenager, goes to work for Vermeer's family as a maid. Her parents cannot support her and this is how she is to take care of herself. Vermeer himself is the only member of the family that actually likes her, and she often helps him prepare his painting supplies as well as cleans his studio. Van Rujiven, Vermeer's patron develops an overly strong liking to Griet, and eventually commissions a painting of her which leads to a very tense household. Fine acting all around fills this interesting story of what could have been behind the creation of this painting.